Another wave of COVID will take out quite a few restaurants IMO. That means only high volume and corporate based restaurants will be able to survive.
I agree with your premise, this is a good indicator. Our entire recovery from 2008 was people working in service based economies and people being forced to retirement. If one reviews the drop in UE to labor participation rates, the pattern becomes clear. The media during this time refused to call it out due to bias. The other aspect is the GDP calculations which enabled the Seinfeld effect boosting GDP due to entertainment.
Well now it is time to pay the economic piper. Why the markets are ok are the jobs being shedded are low dollar per hour which hold minimal economic weight. So if a recovery happens, less labor will be needed across the board and the outsourcing engine will kick up especially if the DNC wins to counter higher taxes.
I hope I am wrong ….